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張競》美國印太戰略將臺海問題國際化

【愛傳媒張競評論】有幾位媒體記者來電,要訪問有關白宮最新公佈美國印太戰略;我忙著在院中砍樹清枯葉,下面錄影與參考文字,歡迎自行剪輯運用——錄影與下列文字,雖然不盡然完全相同,但是大體一致。

白宮公布最新版「印太戰略」全文連封面加封底共計19頁,基本上是立場宣示,勾勒政策原則與構想,限於篇幅並未詳述行動方案。

當然大家不免還是要問,那些段落提到Taiwan?全文共計4段8處,分述如下:

The PRC’s coercion and aggression spans the globe, but it is most acute in the Indo-Pacific. From the economic coercion of Australia to the conflict along the Line of Actual Control with India to the growing pressure on Taiwan and bullying of neighbors in the East and South China Seas, our allies and partners in the region bear much of the cost of the PRC’s harmful behavior.

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We are deepening our five regional treaty alliances—with Australia, Japan, the ROK, the Philippines, and Thailand—and strengthening relationships with leading regional partners, including India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Pacific Islands.

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We will also work with partners inside and outside of the region to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, including by supporting Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities, to ensure an environment in which Taiwan’s future is determined peacefully in accordance with the wishes and best interests of Taiwan’s people. As we do so, our approach remains consistent with our One China policy and our longstanding commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Joint Communiqués, and the Six Assurances.

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The United States will defend our interests, deter military aggression against our own country and our allies and partners—including across the Taiwan Strait—and promote regional security by developing new capabilities, concepts of operation, military activities, defense industrial initiatives, and a more resilient force posture.

基本看法如下:

1.第一段涉臺文字以growing pressure on Taiwan表述,算是持平,但也顯現出拜登政府謀士對於兩岸情勢之認知。

2.第二段涉臺文字分別列出alliances以及partners,親疏有別,吾人必須識相明理,不要亂往臉上貼金。

3.第三段涉臺文字有三點要思考;首先要搞清楚the wishes and best interests 是由誰來定義,其次是如何定義Taiwan’s people,最後是要注意白宮顯然是刻意避免用Taiwanese該辭;其他部分歷來美國政府已重覆多次,並無新義。

4.第四段涉臺文字則是要思考including across the Taiwan Strait與為何不是用including Taiwan?這其中差別何在?其實回過頭去看第三段涉臺文字中有提到Taiwan’s future is determined peacefully,或許會有點想法。

 

最後我要先承認解讀美國政策聲明,從表面text到理解其context,然後掌握其subtext,這個不是我所具備之學術專長。

 

但我還是要強調我們不是活在他人所表述隻字片語之中,勿因白宮政策文件文字意涵而隨之悲喜,畢竟我們要自立自強來為本身未來奮鬥。否則仰人鼻息,國際談判丟盔棄甲,單方面莫明其妙讓步,結果啥個東西都沒換來,那不是很蠢嗎?

 

作者為英國博士、中華戰略學會研究員,曾任國軍艦長

 

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